The Wall Street Journal does an economics survey every month, and it has some great analysis and is a really interesting read.
So here’s our first question: what do Ronald Reagan and Return of the Jedi have to do with 2021? What’s interesting is that we seem to be on track for GDP growth that will exceed that of 1983, which is when we had GDP growth of 7.9 percent. Now what’s different is back in 1983 we were still coming off a bad recession, but nothing like what we had in 2020 with the pandemic, where you know 60 million jobs were lost. Nevertheless, the numbers are the numbers, and we look like we may beat 7.9 percent GDP growth, which is what’s in this survey (linked above).
Other interesting things: as we know, jobs are surging. It was 7 million jobs in April. 6.25 million jobs in March. 4.76 million in February. Of course, these are all people going back to work who lost jobs, but the good news is they’re going back to work, and people are getting vaccines, and hundreds of millions of people have gotten vaccines. There is a fear, though, on the part of a lot of people, of inflation becoming a bigger factor. If you look at the projections of the consumer price index, it could top three percent this year. It’s forecasted to hit three percent this year… not good. We gotta watch that.
The conclusion in the survey is also is that the stimulus checks will not cause inflation, but that all the other abundant government spending, shall we say, may very well drive us into inflation with everything that’s going on. It’s a very interesting read, so check it out. As always, feel free to reach out anytime. Happy weekend!